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From Socialist Appeal, Vol. 5 No. 1, 4 January 1941, p. 1.
Transcribed & marked up by Einde O’Callaghan for the Encyclopaedia of Trotskyism On-Line (ETOL).
From all indications the military timetable of the war is not going to wait upon the seasons this year. The British appear to expect the postponed Nazi invasion sometime in February. Meanwhile either for purposes of a grandiose feint or because he is actually contemplating a totally different strategy, Hitler is moving considerable forces southeastward, through Hungary into Rumania.
In anticipation of either of these moves or of both, Roosevelt’s speech last Sunday served notice on the Axis that U.S. “non-belligerency” was moving rapidly into a more active phase. In shrewd, deceptive language, Roosevelt launched an attack on the Nazis that was worth a dozen bombing raids to the British.
Meanwhile, however, Europe is being covered over with that fog of rumor and speculation which we have come to associate with the Nazi method of preparing military moves.
First of all, it is a notable fact that all the reports of the German troop movements southeastward have come from German-controlled points – mainly Budapest. In place of the normal secrecy that would accompany such movements, these have been surrounded with ostentatious public notice. The Hungarian railway authorities announced revision of train schedules to accomodate the German troops and material. In Rumania, likewise entirely under German control, arrival of these forces has been acknowledged.
Only after their arrival in Rumania has the cloak of real military secrecy descended upon them. All kinds of inspired reports speak of German troop dispositions along the Bessarabian Frontier, Stalin’s gingerly-held southwestern outpost. Others refer to preparations for German action against Greece via Bulgaria. Still others regard the forces mainly as forces for occupation of Rumania. Their actual numbers have ranged in these reports from 60,000 to 600,000.
Even if the latter figure is correct and even if all three of the reported purposes of their movement were more or less accurately reported, it still would not mean that Hitler is not concentrating his main forces along the Channel for an invasion of Britain.
Certainly there is every reason to expect that Hitler plans this Spring – and early this Spring – to attempt reduction of the British Isles. Hitler knows that Roosevelt’s threats are by no means empty but that they will take time, precious time, to carry out. Before U.S. aid to Britain can assume sufficient proportions to tip the scales of aerial predominance, Hitler will certainly stake his present superiority on a single, gigantic drive.
American aid to Britain cannot assume decisive proportions this spring and summer. And precisely this spring and summer will witness collisions of decisive importance. Bourgeois military experts appear in general to have shifted their views on the chances of a successful Nazi invasion of England. They now believe Britain can withstand it. The Kremlin’s military specialists appear to share this belief. Before, long before another New Year rolls around, events should have provided the answer.
Whatever the outcome, the battle will only have been another in a long and widening series yet to come. It will decide nothing final, that decision rests ahead, and rests with the victimized peoples of the earth.
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Last updated: 16 November 2020