Chris Nineham

Border lies

From Socialist Review, No. 185, April 1995.
Copyright © Socialist Review.
Copied with thanks from the Socialist Review Archive.
Marked up by Einde O’Callaghan for ETOL.

‘Department of the Environment forecasts are worse than useless anyway. The DoE estimated a net inflow of 51,000 for 1993 but there was in fact an outflow of 11,000 people’

The Tories are using recent reports from the Home Office and the Department of the Environment to try to start a new immigration scare. They claim that proposed European Union laws will lead to a ‘flood’ of 80,000 immigrants a year. The Tory press has come in on cue, announcing a ‘crisis over illegal immigration’ and ranting about ‘an unstoppable tide’. Michael Howard and John Major have fed the hysteria by announcing a new bill to crack down on immigration.

But the reports bear no relation to hard fact. Though the Tory right and the tabloids have focused on black immigrants, the key question at issue is Europe. Two claims are made: that relaxing passport controls will attract large numbers of EU nationals here, and that non-EU nationals will slip into other countries and head for Britain.

There is no evidence that hordes of Europeans are eagerly awaiting their chance to move to Britain. About half of Britain’s 2 million ‘foreign status’ residents are European, but about two thirds of those are from Ireland, which has centuries old ties with Britain. Britain’s welfare system is stingy compared with many EU countries like Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden and Denmark, and of these only Germany has experienced mass immigration.

Immigrants are attracted by thriving economies and settled communities. The main sources of EU immigration are eastern Europe, the Middle East and parts of Africa. It is unlikely that groups from these areas will be attracted to Britain.

The DoE report forecasts an annual net inflow of 20,000 citizens in the next few years, although in the past the figure has rarely touched 10,000. Of these, most do not fit the tabloid image of the migrant as poor unskilled worker. Many are highly skilled professional, technical and managerial migrants. The DoE has bumped up projections further by including in its estimates students who come here where previously they were excluded.

On past records, Department of the Environment forecasts are worse than useless anyway. The DoE estimated a net inflow of 51,000 in 1993 but for the year to June 1993 – the last period for which records are available – there was in fact an outflow of 11,000 people. The current report is based on a central lie – that the EU as a whole is going to allow free access to non-EU nationals. All EU countries are agreed that, if there is increased mobility within the EU, it should be complemented by a clampdown on immigration into Europe.

It is not even certain that internal passport controls will be lifted. The Tories may manage to retain a clause that allows individual countries to check non-EU nationals.

The current scaremongering is entirely politically motivated. It was sparked by the resignation of Home Office minister Charles Wardle and has been consciously organised by the Eurorebels as part of their campaign against European integration. MPs who have had the whip withdrawn have been lobbying Michael Howard to toughen his stance for months. Howard has happily obliged, and Major and the rest of the party have backed him, rather desperately hoping a nationalist backlash can help them.

Pro-European Tories want free movement for capital and goods within Europe, but not for workers. Eurorebels who claim to be against bureaucratic regulation want tighter controls on the movement of ordinary people. Both sides are prepared to whip up groundless hysteria against immigrants for their own political ends. If they get their way, the victims will be political asylum seekers often facing torture, death and imprisonment at home.

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